Disrespecting the Napkin’s Predictions: A Thing of the Past?
Every Sunday Morning of Draft Weekend, after the last of the bacon, sausage links, and four-pound pancakes are consumed, opening-night lineups are submitted to Orvy in order for him to produce his predictions for the year, traditionally written on the last clean napkin in the place. How Orv comes up with these rankings is a mystery; somewhere inside of his hamster cage of a brain, the rodents are hard at work, spinning wheels, sipping water, and pooping out the predictions for places of finish in the upcoming OFHL year. For anyone to make a prediction on events six months in the future is sheer conjecture, and the final standings for the OFHL is no different. Orv’s September Napkin prediction is often met with any or all of the following: sarcasm, mockery, scorn, apathy, hostility, riotous laughter, or just good ol’ fashioned twerking.
But this year is different. A study of the week 16 rankings compared with the Sept o-13 Napkin reveals some interesting correlations. We are almost 4 months into the season and The Napkin is dead-eye accurate on three places: 1st (cordy), 4th (haukster), and 11th (rolphy), the latter relegating him to the single seat in the nosebleeds at the Coyotes game. That maybe complete luck as pre-season picks of 1st and last might be the easiest, but where The Napkin really earns its chops is in the middle predictions: Five of the remaining eight spots are predicted within one place of the standings:
- 2nd fulty – predicted 3rd
- 3rd derko – predicted 2nd
- 6th erty – predicted 5th
- 7th orvy – predicted 6th
- 9th GoJo – predicted 8th
The Napkin was two places off on T-Man, (sits 10th, predicted 8th) three places off on vinny (sits 7th, predicted 10th) and four places off on EZ (sits 5th, predicted 9th) which was the largest discrepancy from The Napkin.
On average, The Napkin is accurate within ±1.27 places, which is truly miraculous when one considers its origins. And for that, Orv deserves some credit. Naturally, none will be given. Perhaps it’s more like the 100 year flood, the perfect storm, but probably just a well-choreographed hamster dance.